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Who Should I Pick?
Now that’s an interesting question. When I look across the draft
board for the 2008 fantasy football season there are all types of
guys I like and dislike this year for fantasy football.
Selecting players in the draft is all a function of position.
Who is there that can help my team? What players are good value at
the spot I’m looking to select them? On this year’s board,
there are several players that stick out as great fantasy value
picks and some that I’d just as soon let someone else take the
gamble on.
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees's stats from last year dwarf everyone's else, but I have
a feeling that after a down year Peyton Manning will be back and Tom
Brady is healthy again. To be competitive this year, you
must have a solid QB on your roster and there's lots of them
available. Look to draft either Brady, Manning, Brees,
Warner, Rivers, Rodgers, or Romo. These guys will have big
years and a slight dropoff in talent begins right thereafter.
If I can grab one of these guys this year to anchor a lineup including
a stud running back or two, I’m pulling the trigger immediately.
Especially in leagues that allow quarterbacks to have six points for
touchdowns and negative points for interceptions, the
top seven guys are
great value picks for their touchdown to interception ratio alone.
This year, it's conceivable for all seven to throw for over 4000
yards and over 30
touchdowns … that’s solid production at the Fantasy QB position.
The next tier of
quarterbacks, your Schaub, McNabb, or Ryan, should also have solid
years. They’re good value picks after about round four and
will score plenty of touchdowns, but they're just a notch below the
premiere five guys. From here is gets kind of questionable and
if I have to depend on Palmer, Roethlisberger, Cassel, or Manning to
lead me to a title, I hope I've drafted some studs at the running
back and wide receiver positions. The talent drop off in the
next tier is sharp, with lots of question marks heading into 2009.
Can Jay Cutler rebound in Chicago and still be a force at the
fantasy position? Is Matt Hasselbeck ready to rebound from the
injuries that have plagued him the last couple of seasons?
Is Trent Edwards ready to lead the Bills offense to the playoffs?
Is Joe Flacco ready to take the next step in Baltimore? If you
can hit on one of these guys, you might have a fantasy stud at the
Quarterback position. I like Vince Young and Derek Anderson as backups with upside. I’m
not too high on Tavares Jackson, Jason Campbell, or Marc Bulger.
Shaun Hill intrigues me … .
Running backs
You have two stud running backs sitting on top of the draft order
that every fantasy owner is dying to get a piece of in Adrian Peterson
and Michael Turner with both hovering around 1700 yards on the
ground last season. Both of
them should be 20 - 30 point producers per week. Adrian Peterson is
ready to pickup where he left off as the NFL's most explosive back
and Michael Turner is poised to challenge him for the lead.
The next group of guys are solid performers with a lot of upside
sure to make a great addition to any fantasy
squad. Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Slaton, and
Matt Forte are each poised for monster fantasy years, cementing
their legacy as fantasy football superstars. The three rookies
should improve on solid performances last year and although Deangleo
Williams will face more competition from Johnathan Stewart on
Carolina, he should build upon his breakout 2009 campaign.
Marion Barber was a bit of a disappointment last year, Steven
Jackson and Larry Johnson continue to be mediocre, and Marshawn
Lynch with his three game suspension makes him a risky early pick.
Wide Receivers
Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Terrell Owens, these guys
are widely considered the premiere pass catchers of the 2008
season. Randy Moss will score touchdowns and continue his
barrage of the record books. I like Reggie Wayne, he's a stud.
Larry Fitzgerald is up and coming and with a lock down on a
multi-year contract, he is primed for a breakout year. Terrell
Owens is solid, but at
age 34, with fellow receivers from the class of 1996 starting
to slow down - Marvin Harrison,
Eric Moulds, Keyshawn Jonson, Terry Glenn, Mushin Muhammed, Joe Horn,
when will father time begin to creep up on this grizzly veteran.
The question is who are the up and coming wide outs for 2008.
I really like Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, and Brandon Marshall.
Chad Jonson and Marvin Harrison may have lost a step, so
I'd avoid them this year. After the studs have been taken,
look to Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress, TJ Housh, and Steve Smith
for good production. The third year wide outs rule is always
in effect. Keep an eye on Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings,
Santonio Holmes, Demitrius Williams, and Derek Hagan in Miami.
This is a good year for wideouts andI expect lots of them to produce
this year and lots of value in later rounds. Do yourself a
favor, get a stud wideout early, concentrate on getting a top notch
QB, two stud running backs, and then load up on these late round
wide receivers. You're sure to hit on at least two that will
round out a solid fantasy lineup.
What I said Last
year ...
Torry Holt is hurt.
Don’t let anyone mislead you, he may get better and be that stud
receiving threat he always has been, but can you wait until
mid-season for that to happen? The effects of his injury will
linger into the regular season. My advice is to let someone else
take a chance on Holt. Take TO instead. Lots of people don’t like
TO, and for that reason he may hang out on draft boards a little
longer than expected. That’s why you want to grab him, TO has at
least one more elite season in him, no worries about production
there. The next group of guys, the Steve Smiths, Roy Williams,
Larry Fitzgerald, Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson will all
give you very solid production at the wide receiver spot. If you
can pair a few of these guys together, you will find yourself going
deep into the playoffs. The third year receiver rule is definitely
in effect this year, look for guys like Reggie Brown, Braylon
Edwards, Mark Clayton, Troy Williamson, and Brandon Jones who are in
their third year in the National Football League to take that next
step toward respectability.
Tight Ends,
Defenses, and
Kickers
Unless you’re grabbing the elite, and I mean
Jason Witten, Winslow, Gonzo, Gates, you don’t need to be
looking at these lists anytime before the tenth round. TE’s, D’s,
and K’s are all available late in the draft that can get you strong
production to propel your team into the fantasy football playoffs
and beyond. Don’t bypass good value and the top three point
producing positions to take a flyer on the defense that is just like
all the rest.
Follow these keys
throughout your fantasy football draft and I guarantee you will
field a strong fantasy football contender. Stay away from guys with
nagging injuries or guys that are sharing the football in running
back by committee backfields. Remember to focus on grabbing solid
producers at each round. Don’t grab guys that are suspended or
injured hoping that they can turn it on later in the season. By the
time they do, you’ll already be on the outside of the playoff
picture looking in. Good Luck!
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