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including a stud
running back or two, I’m pulling the trigger immediately.
Especially in leagues that allow quarterbacks to have six points for
touchdowns and negative points for
interceptions, the
top five guys are
great value picks for their touchdown to interception ratio alone.
This year I expect them all to throw for over 4000 yards and over 25
touchdowns … that’s solid production at the Fantasy QB position.
The next tier of
quarterbacks, your Hasselbeck, Bulger, or Anderson, should also have solid
years.
They’re good value picks after about round four and will score
plenty of touchdowns, but they're just a notch below the premiere
five guys. From here is gets kind of questionable and if I
have to depend on Cutler, Eli Manning, Kitna or Donovan McNabb to
lead me to a title, I hope I've drafted some studs at the running
back and wide receiver positions. The talent drop off in the
next tier is sharp, with lots of question marks heading into 2008.
Will Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers have breakout fantasy
years? Both have been solid since entering the league, but
neither has distinguished themselves as fantasy football top level
performers. Will Matt Leinart or Matt Schaub finally flash the
potential that heralded their entry into last season? If you
can hit on one of these guys, you might have a fantasy stud at the
Quarterback position. I like David Garrard Trent Edwards as backups with upside. I’m
not too high on Tavares Jackson, Brodie Croyle, or JaMarcus Russell.
Vince Young and Jason Campbell intrigue me … .
Running backs
You have
four stud running backs sitting on top of the draft order
that every fantasy owner is dying to get a piece of - LaDanian Tomlinson,
Adrian Peterson, Stephen Jackson, and Brian Westbrook. All of
them should be 20 - 30 point producers per week. LT should be solid, he always is.
Adrian Peterson is easily the stud with much upside. Stephen
Jackson was a disappointment last year, but I see him coming back
with a vengeance next season. He will
single-handedly carry an entire fantasy football team to the fantasy
super bowl.
The
question is, when will Westbook finally tail off and begin showing
his age?
The next group of guys will be solid performers on any fantasy
squad, there's just a few question marks. Ronnie Brown was
tearing up the league last year until a knee injury ended his
season. Conventional wisdom suggests that you should wait at
least an entire season for the knee to heal before expecting
studlike numbers however Ronnie Brown is young and might be worth
the risk. Keep your eyes on the preseason to find out how the
knee is progressing. Larry Johnson is another question mark.
More fantasy potential, tough season that never got off the ground
and another injury that cut the season short. LJ's line was
decimated last season, the previous year he set the league record for carries in a single season,
and the Kanasas City Chiefs had no passing game to keep teams
honest. A shortened 2007, might be the best thing that ever
happened to him. Look for the Chiefs to draft an offensive
lineman, and perhaps if healthy a return to form for Larry
Johnson. Brandon Jacobs is another question mark, how will the
backfield operate with Derrick Ward, and Ahmad Bradshaw. Will
there be enough balls to go around? Willie Parker seems a bit
fragile, Marshawn Lynch is on the rise. McGahee, Gore, and
Addai ... Willis was solid last year , but I have little faith in
the Baltimore offsense, Frank Gore was a major disappointment, and
Joseph Addai is a mini-touchdown machine on an offense that will
return to throwing the ball in 2008. I really like Ryan Grant
and Earnest Graham next year, there's great value to be had there. A couple of these guys selected at
the running back position will formulate a solid backfield for those
fantasy owners picking in the middle and late first round. I like
Maurice Jones-Drew this year and I’m intrigued by Marion Barber in Dallas.
Without Julius Jones splitting carries in the Cowboys backfield,
will Marion Barber have the opportunity to produce big fantasy
numbers?
Wide Receivers
Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Terrell Owens, these guys
are widely considered the premiere pass catchers of the 2008
season. Randy Moss will score touchdowns and continue his
barrage of the record books. I like Reggie Wayne, he's a stud.
Larry Fitzgerald is up and coming and with a lock down on a
multi-year contract, he is primed for a breakout year. Terrell
Owens is solid, but at
age 34, with fellow receivers from the class of 1996 starting
to slow down - Marvin Harrison,
Eric Moulds, Keyshawn Jonson, Terry Glenn, Mushin Muhammed, Joe Horn,
when will father time begin to creep up on this grizzly veteran.
The question is who are the up and coming wide outs for 2008.
I really like Andre Johnson, Braylon Edwards, and Brandon Marshall.
Chad Jonson and Marvin Harrison may have lost a step, so
I'd avoid them this year. After the studs have been taken,
look to Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress, TJ Housh, and Steve Smith
for good production. The third year wide outs rule is always
in effect. Keep an eye on Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings,
Santonio Holmes, Demitrius Williams, and Derek Hagan in Miami.
This is a good year for wideouts andI expect lots of them to produce
this year and lots of value in later rounds. Do yourself a
favor, get a stud wideout early, concentrate on getting a top notch
QB, two stud running backs, and then load up on these late round
wide receivers. You're sure to hit on at least two that will
round out a solid fantasy lineup.
What I said Last
year ...
Torry Holt is hurt.
Don’t let anyone mislead you, he may get better and be that stud
receiving threat he always has been, but can you wait until
mid-season for that to happen? The effects of his injury will
linger into the regular season. My advice is to let someone else
take a chance on Holt. Take TO instead. Lots of people don’t like
TO, and for that reason he may hang out on draft boards a little
longer than expected. That’s why you want to grab him, TO has at
least one more elite season in him, no worries about production
there. The next group of guys, the Steve Smiths, Roy Williams,
Larry Fitzgerald, Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson will all
give you very solid production at the wide receiver spot. If you
can pair a few of these guys together, you will find yourself going
deep into the playoffs. The third year receiver rule is definitely
in effect this year, look for guys like Reggie Brown, Braylon
Edwards, Mark Clayton, Troy Williamson, and Brandon Jones who are in
their third year in the National Football League to take that next
step toward respectability.
Tight Ends,
Defenses, and
Kickers
Unless you’re grabbing the elite, and I mean
Jason Witten, Winslow, Gonzo, Gates, you don’t need to be
looking at these lists anytime before the tenth round. TE’s, D’s,
and K’s are all available late in the draft that can get you strong
production to propel your team into the fantasy football playoffs
and beyond. Don’t bypass good value and the top three point
producing positions to take a flyer on the defense that is just like
all the rest.
Follow these keys
throughout your fantasy football draft and I guarantee you will
field a strong fantasy football contender. Stay away from guys with
nagging injuries or guys that are sharing the football in running
back by committee backfields. Remember to focus on grabbing solid
producers at each round. Don’t grab guys that are suspended or
injured hoping that they can turn it on later in the season. By the
time they do, you’ll already be on the outside of the playoff
picture looking in. Good Luck!
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